Ball: Barca decline allows Madrid duo to make hay

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  • Barca's form has dipped dramatically.

    Back on March 12, when Barcelona gorged themselves on a 6-0 banquet at home to poor Getafe, they were eight points ahead of Atletico and twelve above Real Madrid. They were basically disappearing over the horizon. That same weekend, Real Madrid struggled to a 2-1 win at Las Palmas, a vague gesture of defiance in a sea of pessimism. Barcelona were unplayable, Leo Messi was alien-like and even Diego Simeone was making noises about the league title being unattainable. Almost five weeks later, and the phrase ‘Hay Liga’ (the league’s back on) is as common as springtime showers, and ‘Hay crisis’ (you can translate that one yourself) is appearing with greater frequency.

    As the saying goes – ‘It’s going swell, you’re looking smug/Then lady luck pulls up the rug’. It’s often like that, although Barcelona has not lost three consecutive league games since January 2003. They are allowed this slump, of course – since they are only human (as far as we know). Their 2-1 home defeat to Valencia on Sunday night, hinted at in this column last week, has opened up the league to such an extent that those sentiments of March 12 seem bizarre in retrospect. Like Leicester’s feats in England, no-one saw this coming.

    It’s probably pointless to seek any profound footballing reasons for this collapse. If Barcelona’s weaknesses were so obvious, why could no-one exploit them before? The truth seems more prosaic, in the sense that once a great run (39 games in fact) comes to an end, a period of self-doubt often creeps in, unless the reversal is immediately put to bed. After their El Clasico defeat, Barcelona didn’t, and the psycho-emotional effects of suddenly discovering that you’re mortal again have hit Barcelona in their collective solar-plexus. When Valencia went 2-0 up on Sunday night, you felt there was no way back. Leo Messi cut the deficit in the second-half by ending his personal goal drought and scoring his 500th for club and country, but it was an effort destined to be buried in the otherwise general negativity of the Catalan day.

    La Liga as it stands...

    • 1. Barcelona - 76 pts, +59 GD
    • 2. Atletico Madrid - 76 pts, +41 GD
    • 3. Real Madrid - 75 pts, +68 GD

    Valencia were always going to be an awkward opponent, despite their league position. They needed the points, were playing their second game under a new manager (the Basque quiet man, Pako Ayesteran), and possess real quality in their ranks. Like Real Madrid in the Camp Nou, they massed the defensive walls and invited Barcelona to attack, but were lighting quick on the counter, offering options to the player in possession by suddenly breaking from midfield in various directions. It paid off handsomely, because the hosts had neither the wit nor luck to break down the focused bus-parking of their opponents. The late chance that fell to Gerard Pique would probably have found the net if it had landed at Luis Suarez’ feet, but lady luck – so often an ally of Barcelona – is currently deserting the Catalans. They also look a little jaded and strangely one-dimensional (an odd phrase to use in relation to them), accumulating a massive statistical superiority in terms of possession, but never really translating it into goals. Neymar seems tetchy and unsporting, Messi a little less clear than usual, and Suarez is simply being crowded out. Did they peak too early? Possibly.

    Nevertheless, if they were to win their remaining five matches, neither of their Madrid-based pursuers could overtake them, even if they took maximum points too from what is left. But there is a further problem for Barcelona, quite apart from the fact that both Atletico and Real are coming back to form at the very moment that their crisis has struck. The problem is that their five remaining games are all against sides that are still mathematically threatened with relegation. This might seem like an unnecessary piece of doom-mongering, but the midweek visit to Deportivo, the league’s draw specialists (17 ties so far), is another tricky one given the Galician side’s need for three points to secure the (psychological) safety total of 41. They will need to recover from the nightmare of recent weeks if they are to avoid dropping further points. After that, they play (in order) Sporting, Betis, Espanyol and Granada, four teams whose top-flight status is still not secured. At this stage of the season, these are always the most awkward games.

    Wednesday night, in actual fact, could well be the season’s decisive evening. Real Madrid have a tricky one too, at home to Villarreal – although the latter lost to Rayo Vallecano on Sunday night and are now looking nervously over their shoulders at Athletic in fifth place. Real Madrid will not expect the easy ride given to them by neighbours Getafe. Atletico also has the most awkward game of their remaining fixtures, away to the aforementioned Athletic Bilbao, on fire in the league and desperately unlucky to go out of the Europa League to Sevilla last Thursday. After that, it looks fairly plain-sailing for Simeone’s men, in a state of seemingly invincible euphoria after their tactical destruction of Barcelona last week – the chronicle of a result foretold. And as my friend the barman said to me on Sunday night as the final whistle blew at the Camp Nou, ‘Va a ganar la Liga Atletico’ (Atletico are going to win the league title). I nodded in agreement; one because he knows his football, and two because it would hardly be a reckless decision to place a bet on Atletico winning the double.

    Nothing seems to faze them. Fernando Torres is enjoying an unlikely return to form, Antoine Griezmann is being talked about as ‘the third man’ (behind Ronaldo and Messi), and nobody seems able to get the ball past Jan Oblack, the Slovenian sentry. Atletico has only conceded 16 goals in the league, a remarkable feat in 33 games. In fact, if anyone can beat Bayern Munich, it’s Atletico. Pep Guardiola won’t fancy it at all.

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