Debate: Is Nadal the runaway favourite for the French Open?

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  • On fire: Rafael Nadal.

    After winning a 10th Monte Carlo Masters and 10th Barcelona Open within the last two weeks, Reem Abulleil and James Piercy debate whether the Spaniard is the runaway favourite for a 10th Roland Garros.

    What side are you on in our debate?

    Share with us your thoughts by commenting below, using #360fans on Twitter or getting in touch via Facebook.

    Reem Abulleil says YES

    Borrowing the words of Roger Federer – what Rafael Nadal has managed to achieve on clay over the past 12 years has been “mind-blowing”.

    After the Spaniard picked up a 10th Monte Carlo crown last week Federer told Tennis Channel: “Rafa’s favourite. He’s so good on clay, he’s shown it again with his 10th in Monaco, which is mind-blowing.”

    Nadal then added a 10th Barcelona trophy to his resume on Sunday.

    In the eight previous times Nadal had won Monte Carlo and Barcelona back-to-back in the same season, he went on to win the French Open as well on six occasions.

    The two times he missed were in 2009, when he was carrying a knee problem and was knocked out by Robin Soderling in the fourth round in Paris, and 2016, where he was in good shape but sustained a wrist injury that forced him to withdraw ahead of his third round at Roland Garros.

    With the French Open still four weeks away (starts May 28), many would feel it’s too soon to rule Nadal the favourite for a record-extending 10th trophy there, especially with Madrid and Rome still to come for the Mallorcan on the schedule before Paris.

    But statistically-speaking, only injuries have ever stopped Nadal from winning Roland Garros after claiming both Monte Carlo and Barcelona.

    Of course tennis is beyond stats and figures – even though Nadal’s history on the surface is difficult to ignore – and it’s the rest of the competition that can play a factor when it comes to the 30-year-old’s chances in France.
    Nadal has been in great form this season – he leads the tour with 29 match wins, has won two titles from five finals reached and is on a 10-match winning streak.

    The same cannot be said about most of his main rivals.

    Novak Djokovic, the defending champion in Paris, is in somewhat of a slump, Andy Murray had elbow issues and showed more signs of struggle in Barcelona, barely squeezing past Albert Ramos-Vinolas before losing to Dominic Thiem, while 2015 winner Stan Wawrinka continues to be a mystery riddled by inconsistency.

    Roger Federer, the 2009 French Open champion, has been the star of the tour this season, but he admitted he won’t be putting in much work on clay – he was in Dubai practicing on hard court up until a few days ago – and isn’t even 100 per cent sure he’s going to play in Paris.

    Even if he does, a miraculous run like the one he had in Melbourne would be a tall order considering the surface requires more work from him than others. Not to mention, he hasn’t played at the French Open in two years, and he only played five matches in total on the red dirt in 2016, and won just three of them.

    Bring in the Thiems, and Zverevs into the mix and you realise none of these youngsters have done enough yet to make us believe they can string together seven wins in 14 days to win a major.

    There is a difference between Nadal’s form on clay this year compared to 2016. There seems to be an extra spring in his step, more vigour to his shots, and much less uncertainty all around.

    While the others may choose to peak at the French, Nadal has always been the kind of player who needs to win many matches in a row to gather confidence and find his rhythm.

    It’s fair to say he’s done just that!

    James Piercy says NO

    If the French Open started today it would certainly be difficult to look past Rafael Nadal.

    With Andy Murray’s fitness a doubt, uncertainty over Novak Djokovic’s mental fortitude, Roger Federer out of match practice – especially on clay – and other leading marquee contenders such as Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori not really making much of an impact so far on Tour, the ball is firmly in Nadal’s court.

    But then time is the key component in assessing it all. Firstly, Murray and Djokovic theoretically have two tournaments each to either work on healing their physical ailments and/or address the creases in their respective games.

    It’s not a coincidence the elite players find a way of peaking in time for grand slams; it’s a mixture of a balanced schedule and careful preparation in conditioning, especially when returning from injury.

    As Nadal chases records around Europe, they are making sure they will be at optimum level at the end of the month. Murray’s elbow is becoming less of a worry with each passing week, and his run to the semi-finals in Barcelona, while unconvincing at times, was encouraging. He doesn’t boast anywhere near the same prowess as Nadal at the French Open but as beaten finalist last year, after two straight semi-finals, it’s a tournament he’s grown to love.

    Out of clay practice: Roger Federer.

    Out of clay practice: Roger Federer.

    For mere mortals, seven weeks and no competitive tennis would be a one-way ticket to a first round exit but Federer is made of magic dust and his declaration to play at Roland Garros simply means, he knows he can win it.

    Wawrinka has too much pedigree in Paris to be discounted while the new school of Dominic Thiem and Nick Kyrgios also represent outside challenges.

    While how much wear and tear five clay court tournaments in the space of eight weeks will have on the brittle bones and ageing muscles of the Mallorcan remains to be seen. It caught up with him last year, and feasibly could happen again.

    He’s undoubtedly the man to beat at the moment, but there’s a lot of tennis still to be played and plenty of questions still to be answered.

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