Has Lionel Messi finally entered into an irreversible decline? After years of mind-boggling brilliance, do we now have to reconcile ourselves with the idea that Messi, once an alien among mortals, is now…just another player?
Some of his statistics are certainly worrying. Messi’s thumped strike past former teammate Claudio Bravo in the victory over Real Betis before the international break is the only goal he has scored in open play so far this season, and he is on track to finish 2020 with his lowest goalscoring tally by far for many years.
After netting an average of 51.6 goals for Barcelona per calendar year since 2011, including a mind-boggling 79 in 2012, so far this year he has only scored 22. And that’s not due to a lack of action: Messi has made 36 appearances for Barca so far this year, playing the full 90 minutes in all games except the half-time appearance against Betis last weekend, so his goalscoring ratio for this year (0.61 goals per game) is way down on his overall club career total of 640 in 741 games (0.86 goals per game).
And when you consider that Messi’s goal tally this year has been boosted by an unusually high number of eight penalties (one aspect of his game which is definitely better than ever), those 2020 stats – 14 non-penalty goals in 36 games – look even more concerning.
So what’s going on?
Well, there are many factors to take into consideration and – spoiler alert – the only sensible answer to the question of whether Messi is really becoming a declining force is non-committal: it’s too early to tell.
For starters, of course, this has been a year of unprecedented turbulence both for Barcelona as a club and Messi individually.
The year started with Ernesto Valverde in charge, but he was soon fired and replaced by Quique Setien just as Luis Suarez, Messi’s preferred partner, was ruled out with a long-term injury. Then came the global pandemic, followed by a compressed finale to the season – far from ideal for a thirty-something – as Barca fell apart under Setien’s divisive leadership, culminating in the horrors of the 8-2 loss to Bayern Munich.
Next, of course, was Messi’s aborted but emotional attempt to leave the club, rapidly followed by the onset of the new season under yet another new manager, containing a rapid flurry of games with a significantly remodelled squad.
No player could expect to perform at his best under those circumstances so it’s only natural that Messi has struggled to find his best form (as have all his teammates with the exception of Ansu Fati), especially taking into account the unconfirmed probability that he has been struggling with an ankle problem since the latter stages of last season.
Despite all that, the statistics show that Messi remains a prominent performer for his team unlike any other player.
Even though Barca have played fewer games than most other teams, Messi still leads La Liga in several statistical categories: he ranks first in shots (29), shots on target (14), shot creating chances (6.62 per game) and successful dribbles (34), and ranks second in passes received (527, just behind Real Betis midfielder Sergio Canales (554), who has played 188 minutes more).
Messi’s significance to his team is undiminished, and his general contribution to Barca’s play remains as strong as ever – although he has not yet been credited with an assist in La Liga, he had a direct role in several goals with his brilliant dummy for Antoine Griezmann’s strike against Betis, crosses turned into their own goal by Villarreal’s Pau Torres and Celta Vigo’s Lucas Olaza, a saved shot against Celta being converted on the rebound by Sergi Roberto and a throughball against Sevilla forcing a mistake from Jesus Navas to give Philippe Coutinho a tap-in. If ‘assists’ were measured differently to include these actions, he would already have five, more than anyone else in La Liga.
One area where Messi has definitely underperformed compared to his previous standards, however, is his shot conversion. He is still getting plenty of chances, but over the last few months he has not been converting them.
This is shown very clearly by the fact that only one of his 14 open play shots on target so far his season resulted in a goal. That is a ratio of 0.07 goals per shot on target, which compares very badly with his historical figures. Until now Messi’s worst ever season in shot conversion was 2007/8, when he scored 0.18 goals per shot on target, while his overall career average is 0.34.
Again, caveats can be found. This is a relatively small sample size and it would only take one hat-trick, of which we know Messi is capable, to rocket his season chance conversion stats up towards his usual figures. We can also say that Messi has been denied by two improbably brilliant saves – by Thibaut Courtois in El Clasico and by Alaves keeper Fernando Pacheco – to keep his current tally down.
This could, however, just be making excuses on Messi’s behalf. His finishing has been less sharp than usual, and another telling statistic against him is the fact that he has not scored a game-winning or game-saving goal away from home for nearly a year, since his winner at Atletico Madrid last December.
Put simply, Messi is less clinical in front of goal than he used to be. But is that a short-term glitch as a consequence of mental and physical fatigue, or the start of a trend that will now continue until the end of his playing days?
In truth, it’s too early to judge. But it probably wouldn’t be too wise to bet against him.
